How Apple can get its mojo back
Apple executives like to talk about the post-PC era as an opportunity. But they have a post-Steve Jobs crisis that needs resolution first -- and fast. This week's calendar fourth quarter earnings report is time to assess where the company is and where it might be a year from now, and whether investors should lift falling shares from the nosedive.
Post-Steve Jobs -- and I'm talking as much about the time before his death -- Apple has lost the quality that made great products. The company’s approach to computer/device design is consistent and pervasive: Humanization. Apple design seeks to humanize complex technological products. There has been much written about Apple design in context of products that look good. But there is something more fundamental: Designing tech that is easy to use by making it more an extension of the human being -- more part of you. It's this quality missing from recent new product iterations, which aren't any more human-like than their predecessors. Meanwhile, competitors like Samsung do better.
Quick, get Windows 8 Pro cheap while you still can
We knew this day would come. That Microsoft would get back to generating Windows revenue rather than lifting market share. Windows 8 pricing is set, and you will pay big bucks to upgrade after January 31. I suppose the cynical mind would see today's pricing announcement as a last push to get procrastinators off their butts before the deal disappears with the wind. Last-minute stampede means more license sales -- 60 million currently -- for Microsoft to declare in the not-so-distant future.
Starting February 1, Windows 8 Pro Upgrade will cost $199.99 -- that's up from as low as $39.99 right now. Microsoft will also, finally, sell Windows 8 (non-pro), which will cost $119.99. With respect to Windows 7 at launch, the prices are the same. But for anyone with 40 bucks on the brain, Windows 8 Pro will cost 400 percent more in just two weeks. The $39.99 price is for anyone downloading direct from Microsoft. A costlier, $69.99 upgrade with DVD media also is available -- just 186 percent increase from that one.
Nexus 7 HSPA+ now comes with T-Mobile SIM
What interesting timing. Earlier today, I wrote about my very good experience exchanging a defective Nexus 7 HSPA+ at Google Play. My unit came with an AT&T SIM, but I pointed out the device also supports T-Mobile's data network. Either I missed, or Google Play added later today, an option to get a T-Mo SIM, too. Price is same for both: $299 plus tax (if applicable) and shipping.
Nexus 7 by far is my favorite tablet, by just about every measure: Performance, comfort in the hand, portability and all-around usefulness for consuming content and communicating (my preferred device for email social networking).
Sorry, Apple Store, Google Play device customer service rocks
I often hear "Apple Store" stated as reason someone chooses iPad over another tablet. The Genius Bar is there for troubleshooting and even replacing defective products. Where do you take Android? It's a valid question, and I can personally attest to amazing Apple customer service. In 2008 and 2011, I had two different MacBook Airs fail. As in dead. I walked out of the local shop with brand new computer each time. That's hella good, eh?
That said, over the last decade, I've only ever exchanged Apple products -- no failures from any other manufacturer (there was fast battery discharge from a Samsung phone, but we kept it). Well, until last week. My 32GB Google Nexus 7 HSPA+ stopped working. No amount of troubleshooting or fancy pressed-key combinations could rivive it. I prepared for the worst, expecting that Google, operating on the Internet, could never give good retail customer service. Was I ever wrong. Apple couldn't have done better.
Is the Lenovo Chromebook right for education?
That's the question we're asking in the newsroom, and the consensus is "No", and that most certainly is my initial reaction. But on further examination, I'm at "depends", meaning for some schools but not for many others. Here size of school district matters, because Lenovo commits considerable extra IT-oriented resources to this newest ThinkPad that should appeal to people managing larger-scale deployments. But smaller schools, such as charter, private or small town, should consider spending less on another model.
Today the two companies announced the new computer, ThinkPad X131e Chromebook, which goes on sale February 26. Quick specs: 11.6-inch display with 1366 x 768 resolution; Intel Celeron processor; 16GB sold-state drive; webcam; Ethernet; dual-bad Wi-Fi N; 2 USB 3.0 ports; single (separate) ports for USB 2.0, HDMI and VGA; and Chrome OS. Lenovo doesn't state which processor or provide dimensions but does give weight as 1.8 kilograms (3.9 pounds). Price is $429, or $459 with recommended IT maintenance service.
The PC is dead to me, or soon will be
Later this month, I plan to jump cold feet into the next computing era by making a tablet my primary PC. I was all primed to start last year, but improved Google Chromebooks derailed the experiment. New year is here and good time for a computing resolution. Already, I made major computing platform shift in 2012 -- ARM, Android and Chrome OS. I'll write about the journey, which surely will tumultuous, at least to start.
I won't go alone. Yesterday morning, my wife asked about trading up to a larger tablet (she used the Nexus 7 I bought her in July). The request was totally unexpected. I added her as another user to my Nexus 10 and let her play around. She likes! She likes! So I ordered her the larger tablet, planning to sell the older one (and some other gear, to cover cost). The idea: We would together go tablet as main devices, with Chromebook as backup (hey, sometimes you need Flash, for example). We will share my Nexus 7, which has HSPA+ radio, to carry around when out and about (me sitting in the man chair while the women shop; she while, say, waiting for her dad at the doctor's office). But both of us will primarily use our own Nexus 10s.
What's rotting Apple?
I'm not an investor or financial analyst. But I do have a measure of commonsense. Lots of people are asking about Apple's falling stock price and why it is. You don't need a MBA or ponder price-earnings ratios to, by commonsense, see what's happening. Apple is undergoing a long-overdue course correction. It's the new normal, baby, get used to it.
Analysts making wild-eyed predictions just months ago about $1,000 a share or bloggers banging keyboards about $1 billion market capitalization are nutty fruitcakes. Apple cofounder Steve Jobs is gone, so they made their own Kool-Aid and spiked it. They're the only thing getting high here. Apple is laid low.
Samsung surges as US consumers pull back from iPhone
ChangeWave has new data out today showing an expected, but dramatic, decline in iPhone buying intentions over the next 90 days and unexpected jump for Samsung smartphones -- two models particularly: Galaxy S III and Note II. One-half of US consumers say they'll buy Apple's handset, but that's down from 71 percent three months earlier. Interest in the South Korean manufacturer's devices surged to 21 percent from 13 percent during the same time frame.
"Consumer buying intent for Samsung smartphones has been extraordinary to start the year", Paul Carton, ChangeWave's vice president of research, says. "Considering the Galaxy S III has been out for several months we'd normally expect a slowdown by now, but it’s still red hot. We’re also seeing strong interest in Samsung’s large-screen phone -- the Galaxy Note II. Super-sized smartphones are taking the industry by storm in 2013". Among those planning to buy a Samsung smartphone, 69 percent say Galaxy S3 and 23 percent Note II.
Did CNET do right by DISH?
We don't often write about other news sites, but the drama unfolding at CNET today is simply too hard to ignore. Your opinion means something, and I ask for it. Or, keeping with Betteridge's law of headlines, you can answer "yes" or "no".
During last week's Consumer Electronics Show, CNET editors voted DISH Hopper with Sling best of show. But parent company CBS stepped in and nixed the choice, citing on-going litigation. Editors disqualified the device, but not indicating that it had actually won. Today, The Verge editor-in-chief Joshua Topolsky broke the story, and long-time CNET reporter Greg Sandoval resigned in protest. Since, CNET reviews editor-in-chief Lindsey Turrentine posted "CNET's story".
Ding, dong, the PC's dead
So much for that Windows 8 pick-me-up. The PC market got no 5-Hour Energy lift during fourth quarter. If anything, the personal computer is out of shape and out of breath, and no Microsoft personal trainer can change that. Gartner calls the current crisis -- and it is for the WinTel and MacTel folks -- a "structural shift". The tablet is the slimmer and shapelier alternative, and it kicks the PC's ass all over the work-out floor.
"Tablets have dramatically changed the device landscape for PCs, not so much by 'cannibalizing' PC sales, but by causing PC users to shift consumption to tablets rather than replacing older PCs", Mikako Kitagawa, Gartner principal analyst, says. "Whereas as once we imagined a world in which individual users would have both a PC and a tablet as personal devices, we increasingly suspect that most individuals will shift consumption activity to a personal tablet, and perform creative and administrative tasks on a shared PC. There will be some individuals who retain both, but we believe they will be exception and not the norm. Therefore, we hypothesize that buyers will not replace secondary PCs in the household, instead allowing them to age out and shifting consumption to a tablet".
Who is Aaron Swartz?
I am not a geek, hacker or programmer but simple storyteller. Some stories are unbearable to write, such as this one -- about an amazing geek and hacker who died suddenly, sadly on January 11. The world lost someone special two days ago. As you prepared for your weekend fun, he contemplated the last moments of life before taking it. You can blame the US government, as his family does and I do. A bright star has gone dark on the Internet firmament, and we'll never know what won't be seen because of it.
I didn't know Aaron Swartz, just of him. I followed some of his accomplishments and legal woes, which surely were catalyst for his final decision. Around the InterWebs, the 26 year old is described in many ways: "programmer"; "hacker"; "activist"; "advocate". His work almost certainly touches your daily life. Swartz co-authored RSS 1.0; he helped architect Creative Commons; he was serendipitous Reddit cofounder via acquisition of his company Infogami; and he was one of the most vocal, active and successful SOPA (Stop Online Piracy Act) opponents.
Amazon AutoRip Changes EVERYTHING
The most important tech news this week isn't from the Consumer Electronics Show. Amazon earns distinction, with a new service that, if rightly executed, could change how everyone buys digital content. Not since Apple licensed digital tracks for the iTunes Store in early 2003 and later secured deals allowing consumers to buy a single and get the rest of the album for appropriately-reduced cost is a music service so provocative. Amazon AutoRip is as big as DRM-free and looms over Apple's iTunes Match -- and both transform music licensing and consumption.
Can you feel it? The Earth shook today, and nothing will be the same because of it.
Which size tablet is right for you?
There is no shortage of new tablets being announced at this week's Consumer Electronics Show -- Acer Iconia B1-A71, Polaroid M7 and M10 and VIZIO 11.6" Tablet PC, among many others. Meanwhile, NPD DisplaySearch forecasts that global tablet shipments will surpass notebooks this year. But what's interesting is a dramatic shift in size preference, which is why I want to know: Which is right for you?
DisplaySearch predicts that tablets with 7-to-8 inch screens will overwhelmingly dominate the market, with 45 percent share. Meanwhile, 9.7 inches -- the size Apple popularized with iPad -- will fall to just 17 percent share. Yet many of the slates debuting at CES are in the larger categories, typically between 10.1 and 11.6 inches. Does size really matter that much, and is smaller better?
Microsoft sells 60 million Windows 8 licenses, the earth weeps
I can name more than a few tech executives who would kill to have this kind of failure. Despite weak PC sales, Microsoft manages to sell 60 million licenses of Windows 8, which nickname around the InterWebs is increasingly "disaster" and "flop". Oh, yeah. Such a tragedy. Has anyone got a hanky, because I'm gonna cry. Assuming 30 bucks a license (a number randomly chosen) that's what? One point eight billion dollars? Yes, such a failure.
But that has got to be much less dough than Windows 7 generated for about the same number of licenses. Microsoft slashed retail upgrade prices. Windows 8 Pro upgrade is $39.99 compared with $199.99 for its comparable predecessor. Yes, Microsoft did offer a Windows 7 Home Premium upgrade for $119.99 and limited-time three-license package for $149.99. You do the math. Windows 8 Pro upgrade still generates less revenue per retail copy and, presumably, OEM license, too. All things being equal, Windows 8 sales aren't anywhere as good as its predecessor, if Microsoft needs fire-sale pricing to generate similar license sales. So where's the handkerchief? My eyes are teary.
Windows 8 sinks with US laptop sales
I rarely quote press releases, but analyst missives are a rare exception because sometimes they make the point so much better than any paraphrasing. "Despite the hype, and hope, around the launch of Windows 8, the new operating system did little to boost holiday sales or improve the year-long Windows notebook sales decline", according to NPD. That's the dismal news for US holiday retail sales between Nov. 18 and Dec. 22, 2012. Windows 8 is a disaster, as I expressed when NPD released early sales data in late November. Matters are worse. This is no longer the Titanic sinking but a fleet of ships.
Gartner and IDC are about to drop global fourth-quarter PC shipment data, but in context of today's separate report from NPD DisplaySearch, expect blood in the water and post-PC sharks circling the victims. According to DisplaySearch, tablet shipments surpassed laptops in the United States last year. Stated bluntly: "increasing tablet PC adoption is stymieing notebook PC growth". Yikes!
Joe's Bio
Joe Wilcox is BetaNews executive editor. His motto: Change the rules. Joe is a former CNET News staff writer, JupiterResearch senior analyst, and Ziff Davis Enterprise Microsoft Watch editor.
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