The things people will do to get Chromebook
This morning, Amazon greeted me with email promoting the ARM Chromebook. Well, hell, back in stock is a story. But what a surprise I got clicking the link. Rather than the expected $249 price, one of the retailer's third-party sellers demanded $342.92 for the WiFi model and $448.45 the 3G. There were five WiFi Chromebooks hours ago. They're sold out now -- 3G as well from the one seller. Another has one 3G unit left for $441.90 -- or about $112 more than the official selling price.
I'm a big Chromebook fan and last week made the $249 ARM model my main PC, even though Samsung's Series 5 550 is faster. I simply like the smaller portable's ergonomics and keyboard better. But my Chromebook enthusiasm stops with paying way more than Google's selling price. I've got to wonder: Why are these people paying premium price? Is it you? Is Chromebook really that much in demand?
Mrs. Claus is naughty and nice in Samsung Galaxy S III spot
Six weeks ago, Samsung sauced up Galaxy S3 marketing with a dad going on a work trip commercial. His girls prepared a video, which the wife beams by touching phones together. She has one, too, but "you probably shouldn't watch it on the plane". A new version is out, with the Clauses, and the plump Mrs. still has spunk. She prepares a video for Santa, "but you probably shouldn't watch it on the sleigh".
What? Will Santa's cheeks burn as red as Rudolph's nose? Mr. Kringle is supposed to reward those kiddies who are nice and give coal to those who are naughty. But what happens to the naughty and nice, like Mrs. Claus? Samsung leaves that to your imagination. But what you can imagine! I know, thinking of Santa and Mrs. Claus in bed together isn't much different than thought of your parents. But, hey, those elves came from somewhere.
Microsoft is right to expand Surface RT availability -- too bad about timing
Microsoft's plans to greatly expand Surface RT sales to third-party retailers accomplishes two things. One: Rebuts unfounded rumors that the tablet sells poorly or that the company has cut fab orders by half. Two: Makes the tablet available in enough places to be truly successful. Honestly, I am so fraking sick of so-called professional blogs (and some news sites) writing rumor stories based on a single source -- or worse using another site's report based on unnamed source(s).
Just a week ago, I explained why "Surface RT sales are probably quite good, you just don't know it". In a number-crunching analysis you shouldn't have missed, I refuted pundit claims sales are weak by looking from the perspective of actual distribution, which isn't much through 66 North American company shops or Microsoft Store online in seven countries. If Surface has any problem, it's limited distribution. Too bad the company waited so late in the holiday season to expand Surface RT availability.
Surface RT sales are probably quite good, you just don't know it
The "Microsoft tablet is a failure meme" was old from the start. Every day there's some new blog based on rumor or innuendo assuring everyone who pays attention that Surface is doomed and sales are this side of worse than terrible. There is so much nonsense punditry, I don't know where to start. DigiTimes has unnamed channel sources saying Microsoft cut orders for the tablet by half. The report got widespread attention, despite the publication's record for getting this kind of story wrong. Along come the analysts. DFG slashed shipment estimates to between 500,000 and 600,000 from between 1 million to 2 million. Number was way too high to start. Now Tim Worstall, a Fellow at Adam Smith Institute, whines that Surface RT is way overpriced. It's not.
If Microsoft's tablet has a sales problem -- and let's strut that I-F again -- distribution is the reason. The product isn't overpriced or flawed. Microsoft only sells Surface through the company store; that's online and (by my count) 66 retail shops. Sixty stores are in the continental United States, five in Canada and another in Puerto Rico. There are only a limited number of places anyone can buy the tablet, which limits how many the company can sell. What matters more is how many Microsoft sells per store. Pundits crying "fail" are nincompoops of the nth degree. If any of them bothered to look at Apple Store, they would understand.
You can't trust IDC's 2016 tablet forecast, or any other
On the heals of yesterday's smartphone forecast, the soothsayers at IDC are back with another bold, brash, and probably foolhardy prediction -- this time for tablets. Once again, Microsoft plays third fiddle to Apple and Google. In a market so fast changing, no one should take any 2016 forecast seriously. But, hey, clients don't pay IDC for doing nothing. Is there a refund policy, because few analysts (okay, none really) get the numbers right. IDC has revised its forecast at least three times this year. Now what does that tell you?
Let's start with the newest revision and then look back at how IDC got the numbers wrong and why those four years hence are probably worthless, too. For this year, the firm predicts 122.3 million tablets shipped, up from 117.1 million forecast in September. Yeah, three months ago. That number revised 107.4 million made in June. You can see where this is headed, right? No surprise, 2013 is higher, too: 172.4 million, up from 165.9 million in September and 142.8 million in June. For 2016, new forecast is 282.7 million, up from 261.4 million in September and 221.1 million in June.
IDC says I won't have to kiss Steve Ballmer's feet
In March 2011, IDC made the most ridiculous prediction -- that Windows Phone would be second to Android in smartphone market share by 2015. I laughed off the forecast, but promised: "Should IDC's prediction prove to be right, I'll make atonement. If Windows Phone is No. 2 smartphone OS by 2015, I'll kiss Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer's feet. He can take off his socks and shoes, too". Today IDC revised the numbers. Microsoft's OS share still looks too high but also places third. Lucky me.
The new numbers are dramatically different and support my longstanding contention that the smartphone market is, or was, too volatile to forecast. Android clearly wins the share battle, even by IDC's conservative estimates. The analyst firm had put Android share at 45.4 percent in 2015, followed by Windows Phone and iOS, with 20.9 percent and 15.3 percent, respectively. Now in 2016, Android projection is 63.8 percent share, followed by iOS (19.1 percent) and Windows Phone (11.4 percent). I wouldn't rule out a BlackBerry comeback.
Google, bring back Nexus Q
Nexus devices are largely sold out this holiday season. Supply can't meet demand, particularly the new smartphone. But one Google gadget is missing altogether, pulled before official sales started. I've got Nexus Q, and you should be able to have one, too. The entertainment device is quirky, but I like it. Surely there is stock sitting around in some warehouse somewhere. Sell it out, Google. Give geeks something else to clamor for and recover some of the development and manufacturing costs.
The sphere-shaped device is a remarkable product, and changes fundamental concepts about digitally-delivered entertainment. Users stream music or movies from the cloud, using Android smartphone or tablet as remote control. The approach solves a fundamental end-user problem with digital content: Simple sharing.
Adobe holds Creative Cloud, Photoshop media event December 11
Well, the Apple-copycats are at it again. The iPad and iPhone creator made something of holding specialized media events, and generating lots of buzz and rumors around them. Perhaps it's no coincidence that more tech companies follow Apple's lead, by suddenly announcing a media event, days ahead of time, with scant details. It's Adobe's turn. I just got an email about a December 11 virtual "Create Now Live" media event to "announce major updates to Adobe Creative Cloud and Adobe Photoshop".
Interested parties can sign up at Adobe's Facebook event page. The show starts at 1 pm EST next Tuesday. Forgive my poo pooing Adobe, but I don't expect the kind of online rumor chatter Apple gets. That said, given recent tablet app updates and Creative Cloud opened for business more than half a year ago, time is right for something from Adobe.
Americans shift shopping to smartphones and tablets
US consumers love to use cloud-connected mobile devices to enhance their shopping experience -- surely something more than a few of you do now that holidays are here. Perhaps least surprising is the number of Americans using smartphones to find local stores -- 78 percent, says Nielsen. That's good news for Google Now, standard browser search services or even Apple's Siri. Sixty-three percent of shoppers check prices in the store. Hey, I do that all the time. Place orders, too. Can you say Amazon?
More Americans use tablets to research items than smartphones (68 percent to 61 percent) or to read reviews of recent or future purchases (53 percent to 45 percent). Forty-eight percent of tablet owners purchase digital items and 43 percent physical goods from their devices. Mea culpa, I do both.
Holiday Android tablet sales surge as selling prices plummet
Analysts continue to crunch Black Friday numbers, and NPD has fresh data out today on several consumer electronics categories, including Android tablets. The good news: sales at US retail are up 177 percent from the same period last year. Revenue: 91 percent. However, average selling prices are way down -- to $151 from $219 a year ago.
The sales figures do not include Kindle Fire, which likely would lift ASPs, as the lowest-priced model sells for $159, which is higher, and new models range from $199 to $499. However, a $129-promotional price days later likely drove down overall selling prices. Right now, that data isn't available.
Microsoft quietly releases Office 2013 desktop and server software
Microsoft would like everyone on the planet to adopt Office 365 and in doing so, move to subscription pricing. Customers get access to their stuff anytime, anywhere and on anything, while Microsoft sees consistent revenue stream and everyone using the newest features. But that's not happening soon. So for the majority of businesses presumably continuing with what the company describes as "on-premises versions", Office 2013 desktop and server software is now available for purchase.
Office 2013, Exchange Server 2013, Lync Server 2013, SharePoint Server 2013, Project 2013 and Visio 2013 are immediately available to volume-license subscribers. Everyone else must wait. "Broad availability of the new Office through retail and online channels is planned for the first quarter of 2013", Microsoft's Sanjay Manchanda says. The company released a trial version to MSDN and TechNet subscribers.
The Daily is Dead -- thank you, Rupert Murdoch
The iPad's flagship newspaper is finished. Today News Corp. promised what some of us in the media long hoped for. Big boss Rupert Murdoch will take The Daily out back of the barn and shoot it in the head on December 15, putting the godawful digital rag, its editors and the few readers out of their misery. Thus ends the iPad's big, publishing experiment. In ruins.
What a mess it is, too. News Corp. spent $30 million just to launch The Daily, which debuted in February 2011 on iPad. Apple joined the revelry that made the then less-than-year-old device seemingly legitimate -- a truly compelling platform for digital publishing. But News Corp's. digital newspaper stumbled right at the start. Early users complained about constant crashes and slow updates. The Daily promised ongoing content updates to the app, but they proved to be too much -- even after new versions released. Fundamentally, however, The Daily's failure is about editorial content.
Will you buy Microsoft Surface Pro?
Last week, Microsoft released pricing on Surface tablets running Windows 8 Pro: $899 (64GB), $999 (128GB). Controversy followed, with the Apple Fan Club of analysts, bloggers, reporters and other writers fanning the flames of misinformation (as they so often do). These nitwits say Surface Pro is overpriced, because iPad costs so much less. But iPad is the wrong comparison to make. I say Microsoft prices Surface Pro against MacBook Air and ultrabooks, which makes loads of sense when looking at the chip architecture (x86, not ARM), configuration (similar to MBA for cost) and operating system (developed for desktop PCs not mobile devices).
I rebutted loony iPad comparisons with post "Microsoft Surface Pro is NOT overpriced". Compared to MacBook Air or ultrabooks, Surface is competitively priced, which was my point -- that and getting sensible analysis out there. But properly priced against competing devices isn't the same as being right for your budget or what you're willing to spend. Apple commands a premium brand, for which people pay more, happily. Then there is ultrabook, which didn't lift PC sales during second and third quarters as Intel and its OEM partners hoped. The costlier laptops simply aren't selling well. Ultrabooks' failure to wow foreshadows big, potential sales problems for Microsoft, which brand doesn't carry the same price premium as Apple's.
Microsoft Surface Pro is NOT overpriced
No sooner had Microsoft revealed the cost of self-branded tablets running Windows RT than doomsayers started crying pricing foul. The 64GB model will sell for $899, starting next month, and the 128 gigger for $999. I've seen several blog posts gleefully whack Surface Pro pricing as being way too high. They're wrong, in part by the Apple device comparison they make.
I asked Stephen Baker, NPD's vice president of industry analysis, about Surface Pro pricing, whether it's just right, too high or too low. "Interesting question though because most of what I have seen has compared it to the high-end iPad". But Microsoft has higher competitive ambitions: MacBook Air, and even Windows ultrabooks. That's the comparison I make and told Baker so. There, the tablet sits just fine. The company priced Surface RT against iPad. Surface Pro squares against Apple's thin-and-light laptop with 11.6-inch display.
Windows 8 is a disaster
Quick, someone add "Nearer My God to Thee" to Steve Ballmer's Xbox Music queue. Microsoft's CEO has a real problem -- well, at least his OEM partners. Simply stated: US Windows PC sales still suck and got absolutely no lift from Windows 8's release. So much for 40 million licenses sold in the first month (and we know it really was longer, since license sales to businesses started in August). Then there is increasing context for Windows chief Steven Sinofsky's sudden departure. The new operating system sinks like Windows Vista. Cue the violins.
New Windows version is supposed to lift PC sales, but they're down 21 percent since the October 26 launch. Notebook sales slumped 24 percent and desktops 9 percent, for the same time period a year ago. "Clearly Windows 8 did not prove to be the impetus for a sales turnaround some had hoped for", Stephen Baker, NPD's vice president of industry analysis, says.
Joe's Bio
Joe Wilcox is BetaNews executive editor. His motto: Change the rules. Joe is a former CNET News staff writer, JupiterResearch senior analyst, and Ziff Davis Enterprise Microsoft Watch editor.
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